Risk of Lumentum Applying 3D Sensing Business Model Across Firm

$500.00

Published August 15, 2021. 30 pages

Although fibeReality expects Lumentum Holdings to remain in a strong competitive position with its 3D-sensing business, the supplier is facing two substantial direct threats: 1) a decline in its share of the 940nm market and 2) II-VI has at a minimum, the potential for developing a more competitive cost structure because of its vertical integration of epi growth, fab, and reliability testing, which may allow it to grab an even more noticeable share away from the leader.

Description

Published August 15, 2021. 30 pages

Although fibeReality expects Lumentum Holdings to remain in a strong competitive position with its 3D-sensing business, the supplier is facing two substantial direct threats: 1) a decline in its share of the 940nm market and 2) II-VI has at a minimum, the potential for developing a more competitive cost structure because of its vertical integration of epi growth, fab, and reliability testing, which may allow it to grab an even more noticeable share away from the leader. Lumentum’s strategy, beyond staying ahead of its principal competitor on technology, such as its lead with LiDAR chips, is to continue to make up for its lack of complete control by excelling with both its operations team and its contract manufacturing partners to provide differentiated benefits, albeit in a virtual manner. Another planned move by Lumentum is to re-enter the datacom space with its 940-nm VCSEL chips. Yet, the recent, unpublicized, corporate-wide reorganization by the supplier might look like an admission of the company’s inability and/or unwillingness to efficiently run its internal factories and fabs. Supporters of Lumentum can still take solace in the vendor not making unilateral, major changes overnight. Also, in fairness, optics is as tough as ever as a business. Problems need to be faced and met with difficult decisions.

The report addresses the following matters:

• World demand projections out to 2025 by VCSEL type in units and dollars
• Pricing drop rates
• Structured light vs dToF/iToF
• Degree of Lumentum’s lead with LiDAR-based chips
• Extent of short-term market decline in 3D sensing
• Impact of Lumentum’s recent reorganization effort
• VCSEL strategies of main customers
• Competitive analysis of major VCSEL vendors
• Negotiating tactics by Apple with suppliers
• Apple’s maneuvers to drive pricing down to commodity-like levels
• Potential merger of 3DS and datacom VCSEL businesses
• Principal emerging 3DS applications
• Outlook for Android usage
• Maturity rates of PAM4-based VCSELs by speed
• Effects of SWDM
• Timing on arrival of long-wavelength VCSELs including with SMF
• Multi-junction VCSEL development
• Reasons for 6” VCSEL wafer longevity
• Support expectations by Apple
• Likelihood of Apple becoming vertically integrated with VCSELs
• Expectations for silicon photonics becoming a true threat
• Odds of VCSELs making a difference with co-packaged optics

Table of Contents

Table of Contents
SCOPE AND METHODOLOGY 
1.0 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 
1.1 APPLE AS CENTRAL BUYER 
1.2 COMPETITIVE POSITIONS OF 3D SENSOR/VCSEL PLAYERS 
1.3 ASSERTIONS OF DEMISE OF DATACOM VCSEL SPACE INACCURATE 
1.4 USERS/APPLICATIONS FOR VCSELS OTHER THAN APPLE/IPHONE 
1.5 ADDITIONAL TECHNICAL AND MARKET TRENDS 
2.0 WORLD MARKET PROGNOSTICATIONS FOR VCSELS/3D-SENSORS 
2.1 FORECASTS 
Exhibit A: World VCSEL Chip Projections For Two Major Apps 
Exhibit B: Total World VCSEL Chip Shipment Projections by Type in Revenue 
2.2 METHODOLOGY 
3.0 BUSINESS AND TECHNOLOGY CONCERNS/SHIFTS 
3.1 SPECIAL FOCUS ON APPLE 
Exhibit C: Guidance in Doing Business/Getting Acquired with/by Apple 
3.2 LUMENTUM AND ACTING “BIG” 
3.3 ANDROID VS IPHONE 
3.4 STRUCTURED LIGHT VS TOF 
3.5 AR/VR 
3.6 AUTOMOBILES 
Exhibit D: 3DS VCSELs in Automotive Sector 
3.7 ROBOTICS 
Exhibit E: Outlook for VCSELs in Robotic Space 
3.8 AEROSPACE/AVIONICS 
3.9 DATACOM VCSELS 
3.10 5G WIRELESS 
3.11 IMPACT OF DENSER WAFERS 
3.12 PROSPECTS FOR GOING BEYOND 6” WAFERS 
Exhibit F: 8” and 12” VCSEL Wafers Highly Unlikely in Foreseeable Future 
31.3 SWDM4 
3.14 VCSELS VS SILICON PHOTONICS 
3.15 LW VCSELS AND SINGLEMODE FIBER 
3.16 MMF AND CO-PACKAGED OPTICS 
3.17 OTHER MARKET APPLICATIONS/TECH ALTERATIONS 
4.0 KEY END USERS BESIDES APPLE 
4.1 ALIBABA 
Exhibit G: Alibaba’s Major VCSEL Focus 
4.2 CISCO SYSTEMS 

4.3 GOOGLE 
Exhibit H: Google’s Perspective on VCSELs at a Glance 
Exhibit I: Google VCSEL Installations Will Be in Greenfield DCs 
4.4 HUAWEI/HISENSE 
4.5 IBM 
4.6 MICROSOFT 
Exhibit J: Microsoft’s Philosophy on VCSELs 
4.7 SAMSUNG 
4.8 SONY 
4.9 OTHERS 
5.0 COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS OF SUPPLIERS 
5.1 AMS OSRAM 
5.2 BANDWIDTH10 
5.3 BROADCOM 
Exhibit K: Broadcom’s Dominant Datacom VCSEL Bare Die Position & Future Hurdles 
5.4 II-VI 
Exhibit L: II-VI’s VCSEL Situation in a Nutshell 
Exhibit M: Depletion of VCSEL Talent at Finisar/II-VI 
5.5 IQE 
5.6 LUMENTUM HOLDINGS/WIN SEMICONDUCTORS 
Exhibit N: Outlook for Lumentum’s Spinning Off 940nm to Sell Datacom VCSELs 
Exhibit O: Lumentum’s Temptation to Move Further Away from Insourcing 
Exhibit P: Recent Reorganization Efforts at Lumentum 
Exhibit Q: Other Aspects of Lumentum’s Strategic Direction 
5.7 NVIDIA/MELLANOX TECHNOLOGIES SWEDEN 
5.8 SKYWORKS SOLUTIONS 
5.9 STMICROLECTRONICS 
5.10 SUMITOMO ELECTRIC 
Exhibit R: Sumitomo’s Reversal on Saving Face Regarding 850nm VCSELs 
5.11 TRUMPF PHOTONIC COMPONENTS 
5.12 VERTILAS 
5.13 VI SYSTEMS 
5.14 OTHERS