Description
Published August 15, 2021. 30 pages
Although fibeReality expects Lumentum Holdings to remain in a strong competitive position with its 3D-sensing business, the supplier is facing two substantial direct threats: 1) a decline in its share of the 940nm market and 2) II-VI has at a minimum, the potential for developing a more competitive cost structure because of its vertical integration of epi growth, fab, and reliability testing, which may allow it to grab an even more noticeable share away from the leader. Lumentum’s strategy, beyond staying ahead of its principal competitor on technology, such as its lead with LiDAR chips, is to continue to make up for its lack of complete control by excelling with both its operations team and its contract manufacturing partners to provide differentiated benefits, albeit in a virtual manner. Another planned move by Lumentum is to re-enter the datacom space with its 940-nm VCSEL chips. Yet, the recent, unpublicized, corporate-wide reorganization by the supplier might look like an admission of the company’s inability and/or unwillingness to efficiently run its internal factories and fabs. Supporters of Lumentum can still take solace in the vendor not making unilateral, major changes overnight. Also, in fairness, optics is as tough as ever as a business. Problems need to be faced and met with difficult decisions.
The report addresses the following matters:
• World demand projections out to 2025 by VCSEL type in units and dollars
• Pricing drop rates
• Structured light vs dToF/iToF
• Degree of Lumentum’s lead with LiDAR-based chips
• Extent of short-term market decline in 3D sensing
• Impact of Lumentum’s recent reorganization effort
• VCSEL strategies of main customers
• Competitive analysis of major VCSEL vendors
• Negotiating tactics by Apple with suppliers
• Apple’s maneuvers to drive pricing down to commodity-like levels
• Potential merger of 3DS and datacom VCSEL businesses
• Principal emerging 3DS applications
• Outlook for Android usage
• Maturity rates of PAM4-based VCSELs by speed
• Effects of SWDM
• Timing on arrival of long-wavelength VCSELs including with SMF
• Multi-junction VCSEL development
• Reasons for 6” VCSEL wafer longevity
• Support expectations by Apple
• Likelihood of Apple becoming vertically integrated with VCSELs
• Expectations for silicon photonics becoming a true threat
• Odds of VCSELs making a difference with co-packaged optics
