Predictions

Predictions 1556576911 47

Juniper’s SiPh: Reductio ad Absurdum

“fibeReality…just picked up some intelligence that Juniper has had some technical difficulties, and unlike what was advertised at OFC, availability of the initial TXs could…
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CFP2-ACO Modules: Lingering Cash Cow

“…Oclaro is close to exiting the QSFP28 module business, or at least the 100G CWDM is possible….[It] shifted its focus to the chip sales.” Foreshadowing of…
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Oclaro: Waiting for the Other Shoe to Drop

“We heard through the grapevine that Beck Mason, currently President of Integrated Photonics along with Walter Jankovic, presently President of Optical Connectivity, will remain, and…
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ZTE’s revival

We predicted (see comments section) it would happen much sooner than the conventional wisdom.  
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Lumentum + Oclaro: Ecosystem/Profit Bust

Shortly afterward, there started to be acknowledgement of our assessment by other sources regarding the terrible market conditions created by the hyperscale data center operators in…
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Verizon’s 5G target

“Verizon’s primary focus for 5G will be on enterprise applications including machine-type communications and mission-critical transport.” In May, 2019, the operator started to openly admit…
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Perils of Over-Exuberance

Despite ADVA reporting its “revenue outlook for the remainder of the fiscal year is subdued,” we were critical of its rather rosy outlook on the…
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Optical “Supercycle” Farce

“With the exception of Chinese system vendors, the booming business mainly applies to component companies supplying them.” By 9/17, it became totally clear that short-term,…
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Acacia’s Bridge Too Far

Regarding, “we would not be surprised to see Ciena introduce WaveLogic 4 soon,” the vendor launched WaveLogic Ai the next day, its fourth-generation DSP.
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SDN Crack-Up?

In public networks, SDN continues to be deployed mainly in greenfield applications, specifically in the access portion.
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Infinera’s PIC Challenge

“While the necessity for 64QAM is terribly far out into the future, we think it is possible that a plateau has been hit with Infinera…
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Xtera IPO an Act of Desperation?

Although we understand that there was a high level of optimism at Xtera in raising funds publicly, it had insufficient appreciation of the higher level…
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Verizon’s Potential Colossal Blunder

In not selling its enterprise business, as the newswire report indicated, there were considerations otherwise, such as Verizon 5G wireless offerings would be bolstered as…
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More 400G Insanity at ECOC

“There can be no doubt that in the foreseeable future that there will be an extremely small number of ports at that data rate found…
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Ciena Probably Overpaying for Cyan

Ciena unwisely destroyed the high-margin, transport gear of Cyan, and the sales performance of the original “Blue Planet” was less than stellar, to say the…
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400GbE Spectacular Fantasy

“As more time goes by, we hope there will be a greater sense of inevitability to developing a standard that would have a greater level…
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