Case Study

“It is rare that you come across a stand-out talent in realistic market analysis like Mark. The exhaustive work that he did for EPIC, scouting photonics opportunities in 5G, earns my highest recommendation.” — Jose Pozo, PhD, Director of Technology and Innovation, EPIC

“Mark’s analysis has helped me plenty! I have always been interested in his views as a base to compare my tendency to dream. If you want to know the bottom line on the industry today, Mark adds value in a big way. I believe these proven facts and data in concert with EPIC’s propensity to focus on “what if” scenarios resulted in a very valuable experience for everybody. I look forward to further great content from EPIC.” — Richard Sparks, New Materials Research

“Mark, thanks for your 5G photonics market presentation. This was much different from what I’ve seen before!” — Pierre Wolkowicz, Product Line Manager, 3SP Technologies (part of O-Net Technologies (Group) Limited

“A great 5G report you created for EPIC” — Jeff Demain, Vice President of Business Development and Marketing,
AEPONYX

fibeReality was chosen by EPIC to produce its first commissioned study at no cost to its membership: Market Report on 5G X-Haul Photonics (published in March 2021). EPIC might be the only industry organization on the planet, which would not insist on a single change in a 130-slide document produced by four intensively impartial consultants.

Mark, the head writer and analyst for the report, made the presentation to EPIC’s members, which was moderated by Jose Pozo, and there was great deal of interaction with the audience during the entire four hours of discussion (see https://www.epic-assoc.com/presentation-of-epic-market-report-on-5g-x-haul-photonics/). EPIC’s members can gain access to both the study and the presentation on the consortium’s extranet. Other comments on the project can be found by clicking here: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/carloslee_new-i-am-very-excited-that-the-market-activity-6776167667540750336-Z1WO.

The study offers insights on the long-term sustainability of 25G optics, including in Europe, and the current decelerated pace of spending globally. Also, the report addresses the reasons why mobile network consolidation needs to happen sooner rather than later as well as tackles the astounding amount of consideration of the O-band optical spectrum, such as in the EU. In addition, despite the great challenges in the 5G fronthaul and midhaul photonics markets, and only a handful of transceiver suppliers in Europe, the assumption that such players cannot be competitive with Chinese players has turned out to be incorrect. Moreover, the incredibly high stakes in getting the costs of optics down will be discussed.

Ten other major areas addressed include the following:

1) world fronthaul projections by speed;
2) 5G ultimately being more of an operations-centric play as opposed to apps-driven;
3) requirements to essentially re-build the entire wireless network;
4) consideration of merging fronthaul with access layer;
5) likelihood of more advanced optical components;
6) China’s dominant position in X-haul optics and in driving forward new architectures;
7) a special focus on 5G airport apps;
8) sustainability of investments in backhaul in the short term;
9) NG-PON2/midhaul cost considerations; and
10) hurdles to partnerships between MNOs and cloud operators.