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Monetizing Older Networks: An Overreach?

March, 2015

Although one of the most thought-provoking panels at OFC 2015 will be on the monetization of optical networks, which will include seasoned experts who are vigorously involved in building new revenue models, it is not easy to imagine the kind of cultural metamorphosis that would be required for incumbent service providers to change their long-standing, bureaucratic behavior. In addition, while it is only commonsense to switch from a model that requires a lengthy period of time to install a circuit with a long-term commitment to more of a cloud-driven, network-on-demand paradigm, in which files can be loaded for say, a couple hours to be analyzed, we have discussed the very legitimate structural defects that would frighten executives away from moving in such a direction. Nevertheless, maintaining the status quo is also out of the question for these well-established carriers and seeking...

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Ciena as Chameleon

June, 2016

A principal, overriding theme of our past blog posts focusing on Ciena is that it has not maintained a consistent vision for its future. We believe that historically, it has had a penchant for readily transitioning to the strategies and philosophies of executives, particularly brought on through acquisitions, including from startups that were already on a severe downward trajectory, which had at times resulted in serious financial consequences. It seems evident that at as a result of the "Nortelization" of Ciena, the supplier shifted from a just-in-time business model to one heavily based on backlogs in which the recognition of large amounts of revenue can be substantially stretched out for occasionally undetermined durations. Our expectation is that because of potential massive revenue constraints with the numerous signs of hard times ahead on the macroeconomic level, Ciena will be...

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5G mmWave: Escaping "Plato's Cave"

November, 2020

fibeReality has strived to demonstrate that Verizon Wireless' reasoning behind its obsession with enabling mmWave spectrum has no other logical basis than to provide the necessary backbone for loads of downlink capacity to its subscribers. We have even pointed out that the explanation has been roughly exposed publicly perhaps as a trial balloon to see if there would be any negative ramifications on its corporate valuation. In the meantime, there continues to be the paradox of industrywide excitement of T-Mobile increasingly taking on additional customers, which only exposes the operator further to inadequate capacity delivery in the future.  Also being ignored is the anguish of the AT&T network planners in having insufficient mmWave enabled to adequately support its customers moving forward. Certainly, there are business relationships between suppliers and buyers, which just naturally...

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