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Telecom Analytics With Bad Data?

November, 2014

On the landline side, the incumbent service providers have been notoriously lousy at record keeping. There are still in place very antiquated inventory systems along with a high level of ignorance about whether a large number of circuits are either working or connected in networks. At least with wireless technology, it has been around for a much shorter period of time, and would not be nearly as burdened with ineffective solutions in the back offices. What is the biggest reason for bandwidth on demand not taking off in a significant way after about three decades of hype? Again, it is about the lack of adequate knowledge by these carriers concerning their networks. How can executives be sure that rapid change will not adversely impact services with them all toppling on to each other? While there have been workarounds, modifications, as well as reductions in the use of Ma Bell’s Trunk Inte ...

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ADVA Should Look at Buying Xtera

September, 2015

ADVA Optical Networking’s CEO mentioned that it “is considering a ‘larger deal [than the Time4 Systems purchase] more in the mid-term’ that could give it access to a new group of customers,” according to a recent article in Light Reading. Xtera Communications, which we suspect would love to find a graceful exit opportunity, and so it would presumably be amenable to a price quite attractive to ADVA, somewhat fits the bill, even if it is not necessarily "small enough to absorb into...its operations in a pretty seamless manner." Xtera is a pure long haul/regional play both on the submarine and terrestrial sides of the network, offering technology truly unique in the industry. Actually, it is that very last aspect that could be the most interesting to ADVA. More important than any products the supplier will introduce as a result of the Oscilloquartz acquisition, taking over such a major play ...

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Optical Line Interoperability Illusion

October, 2015

Although Microsoft and others have been discussing the notion of an Open Line System (OLS) to provide standardization with long-haul and metro equipment, there is little precedent for such grand notions ever coming close to being real with any technologies in the past. Naturally, large service providers are always inclined to ask for everything under the sun, including compatibility between vendors to potentially reduce their operational costs. (In responding to an RFI or RFP from the three largest incumbent carriers in the US, if a supplier does not at least say it has a plan to accommodate absolutely every request, it will immediately be eliminated from consideration.). However, despite countless successful interoperability tests that have been performed over the years, optical vendors, especially the biggest ones, at the end of the day, usually have absolutely no desire to enable thei ...

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Coriant: Market Perils on Investment in Distressed Assets

December, 2015

There can be a fundamental problem when private equity firms buy up companies in a depressed condition in that the overwhelming desire to sell off those assets at the most favorable valuations can be in conflict with the best interests of the market, especially when the overall space is not that healthy. In the case of Coriant, it is one thing if it is a relatively quiet participant in striving to accommodate “third party [O]pen [L]ine [S]ystems” (OLSs), it is quite another to be an extremely aggressive cheerleader in order to possibly increase relatively short-term revenue, because at least on its face, it is not in the best long-term interest of the rest of the transport suppliers (as we pointed out in a recent article). While we continue to believe there will be hurdles in moving to OLS on the public network side, we have found out that this activity has started already in the Data Ce ...

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Reactions to Ciena Based on Elusive Credibility Factor?

December, 2015

A recent blog article on Light Reading gets into whether the initial backlash on the Street against Ciena was justified based on the past quarterly results as well as on the projected performance of the vendor. In our opinion, and as we have discussed in the past, despite rather exemplary leadership on the technology portion of the company over the years, it has been held hostage for a very long time by management on the financial and marketing sides of the business with a shockingly insufficient amount of intimacy with the optical industry. We also believe that there is a serious tone-deafness when it comes to its interactions with the investment community, such as in inadequately addressing the “severe deceleration in growth rate” in its core business over about the last four years on the past earnings call. Finally, there are the “rookie” kinds of mistakes regarding strategic decision ...

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