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Inphi’s COLORZ: New Buyer Constrictions

September, 2018

Although Microsoft’s major push to try to create a market for Inphi’s COLORZ solution was memorable, it was unsuccessful, as the former has remained the only customer so far. In fibeReality’s opinion, the lack of traction by the module is more than Microsoft’s unique optical networking proclivity, and so, although we are inclined to believe it will likely be a buyer of the 400G version as well, the technological limitations of the product, in general, have resulted in significantly less purchasing than would have been expected by the champion/development partner. Clearly, Inphi has wanted to give the impression for a while that there would be at least one other major purchaser of the device, and we thought that Amazon, given its positioning of data centers, most resembled Microsoft, and thus, would be in the running. The problem is that there may be a good reason why Amazon has...

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400G: Impulse to View Rate in a Vacuum

September, 2018

At ECOC this week, the aspect that will almost assuredly not come across is that large optical component firms have to be asking themselves whether major development efforts on high-end optical components, especially on the client side, is logical anymore. So, regarding work on FR4, DR4, etc. modules -- why would they not be clobbered on price to the same extent as happened with the QSFP28 on the CWDM devices? Making it even worse is that at least for the next three-years, the customers that need 400GbE will just be the big-four hyperscalers. Only two of them have demonstrated a willingness to make investments, which have been strategic at best, in an environment in which capital is hardly plentiful. A further indication of the slow uptake on the 400G client is that a number of the optical system suppliers are looking for a modification on the use of one of the standards. In adding in...

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MACOM: Volte-Face Analogous to Infinera

June, 2019

There are striking similarities between MACOM Technologies Solutions and Infinera – not only regarding the most obvious characteristic that they have likely, more or less, reached rock-bottom on their valuations, but on the comparable paths that they took to get to this point. Each unwisely moved up the food chain from the optical chip level, which had immediate negative ramifications, as Infinera ignored the admonishment that it would rapidly result in a substantial decline in the size of the total long-haul system market, and MACOM quickly became what has been accurately described by some people in the industry, as an ineffective holding company for acquired parts of differing worth (not to mention MACOM entering deeply into the “hyperscale vortex” with Amazon). Each vendor was driven by over-the-top marketing/sales efforts, with the tendency to hype non-existent,...

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400GbE Modules: Forecasting 2025 vs 2020

July, 2019

What exactly is a “real” client-side 400G device? We can certainly count on many marketing folks, and just about all research firms to define it as broadly as possible because for them, it is all about making the size of the opportunity as big as possible. Certainly, in the past and more recently, when fibeReality talked about the slow arrival of 400GbE, it was in the context of how it was defined by the vast majority of optical technologists in the industry: after standardization of the physical medium dependent sublayers by the IEEE -- in particular, in moving forward, the efforts of the 802.3ck Task Force, as the main presumption is that the industry needs to get the SerDes line rates to 100 Gb/s. Of course, two of the Web 2.0 operators, Google and Amazon, for their internal optical networks, have chosen to go with what at least some engineers might call band-aid approaches, the...

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Tibit: Last “Telecom Valley” Optic Hurrah

August, 2019

  Over the years, nobody can deny that some of the most prominent “Petaluma Telecom Valley” entrepreneurs/engineers were courageous in taking on the huge, technological challenges, in the inherently hardest sector to generate meaningful and sustainable profitability, from the perspective of both optical infrastructure suppliers and service providers: the access portion of the network. It has always been difficult because much of that “last mile” involves residential traffic across a range of incomes, but regardless, there has increasingly been an overall propensity on the part of these subscribers, in general, to expect superior service, without a significant rise in the price. There has also been the classic struggle to gain easy, direct entry into these homes. Nevertheless, the Petaluma approach was to take the new technology to the next stage of complexity, while still...

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