BLOG

Top 10 Enigmas at Infinera’s Analyst Day

November, 2016

Our initial thoughts on Insight Infinera 2016, as outlined on our daily updates page over a week ago, was partially that “time will unlikely be a friend [to the vendor] as questions over long-term survivability are apt to become more pronounced.” We also stated that “[t]he only edge that we have been aware of over the years has been the ease of turn-up.” Actually, in having all of the DWDM channels built in on a card, such an advantage would be the bare minimum expected. At least the vendor made an attempt to clear up one of our questions in our last blog post on Infinera showing trans-oceanic growth (when it is not a full turnkey vendor), by stating it is about trends across the board. Overall, we found the long presentation to be at least somewhat delusional with extensive development continuing on its PIC approach (that might even require moving on to a different technology...

Read More

Finisar/Oclaro: Nearsighted Beyond 4x50G

November, 2017

As with fibeReality, both Finisar and Oclaro have problems foreseeing 400GbE in any meaningful way in the anticipatable time ahead. While each is more than glad to mention development efforts in this direction, their powerful statements included in a couple of recent articles on Gazettabyte cannot be dismissed. An executive from Finisar said, “There is probably more technical risk in 400 gigabits than any of the historical data-rate jumps we have seen.” The Chief Commercial Officer from Oclaro said, “The industry really wants four channels. When you use more lasers, you are adding more cost." In addition, with the expectation of NG-PON2 becoming the de facto standard for at least many large portions of the globe, 25G will even have longer legs. Any vendor that can produce a low-cost 25G laser will be a big winner in the future optical access space. All in all, it is not even that...

Read More

400GbE: Wakeup Call for Hyperscale Operators

August, 2018

When it comes to the critical development efforts for 400GbE, the big-four hyperscale data center operators do not appear to be doing much more than going through their usual motions. Despite their undeniable role in the destruction of the optical ecosystem, they seem inclined to believe that the mere expectation of high revenues from this gear will miraculously result in the arrival of these highly complex devices relatively soon. Incredibly, despite the arrival of 100G electrical possibly being as many as five years away, Amazon apparently expects to see 4x100G by the end of 2018. There is just no obvious sense of urgency by these buyers as it looks like their short-sighted goal, after they became dominant purchasers, to drive down devices to razor-thin margins, will result in about 1.5 large component vendors in the US remaining in the space. The longer these users wait to make the...

Read More

The Case for 4x50-Gig Indeterminately

August, 2018

While fibeReality is willing to double down on our wakeup call to the hyperscale data center operators on the need for them to help reconstruct an optical ecosystem for development efforts on 4x100GbE for the long term, and for 50G in the short term, it is important to take a step back on what they could actually live with -- for an indefinite period of time. In the past, we have consistently not only pointed out the technical difficulties in moving to higher data rates, but cases in which we believed executives at these big private networks were disingenuous in suggesting they lacked the means of adaptability in a capacity crunch. Also, when fibeReality saw the initial unviable schemes produced by standards bodies for 400GbE, we were an early advocate for moving down to working on a more conservative 200GbE standard. Moreover, although there is an undeniable enigma associated with...

Read More

Ciena/Packet Design: First-Rate Acquisition

September, 2018

While Ciena’s historic record for acquiring companies has left a lot to be desired, its most recent buyout of Packet Design was a shrewd move. In contrast, Infinera, which at quite a late date, ostensibly was forced to pick up a struggling firm with a lot of incumbent roots, despite the continuing insistence by the only PIC-centric supplier that it possessed a leading-edge solution. Conversely, Ciena’s purchase of the Nortel’s assets to save itself was about nine years ago, and it is becoming even clearer to us that our expectation for a while will come to pass that along with Huawei, the two firms are set to end up ultimately dominating the international optical system market, especially on the terrestrial side. Yet, despite Ciena’s strengthening position in the space, the leadership still cannot seem to avoid making remarks that defies credulity. Verizon’s next-generation...

Read More